Validity of the Seattle Heart Failure Model after heart failure hospitalization.

Autores de INCLIVA

• 

  Julio Nuñez Villota

  Autor

• 

  Juan Sanchis Fores

  Autor

Participantes ajenos a INCLIVA

• Li S
• Marcus P
• Núñez E
• Levy WC

Grupos y Plataformas de I+D+i

• Grupo de investigación en Cardiología Clínica

  

  Leading Researcher

  Juan Sanchis Fores

Abstract

Aims Heart failure hospitalization is a sentinel event associated with increased mortality risk. Whether long-term heart failure risk models such as the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) accurately assess risk in the post-hospital setting is unknown. Methods and results The SHFM was applied to a cohort of 2242 consecutive patients (50% women; mean age 73) on discharge after acute heart failure hospitalization and analysed for the primary endpoint of all-cause mortality. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed. Direct patient-level comparison between our study cohort and the original SHFM cohorts was also performed to confirm and quantify the degree and extent of increased mortality risk attributable to post-hospital status. The SHFM demonstrated good overall risk discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.704) and was well calibrated in patients The SHFM accurately predicts mortality risk in younger patients after acute heart failure hospitalization. However, patients >= 65 years old had increased adjusted mortality risk for up to 18 months after discharge compared with ambulatory heart failure patients, a pattern consistent with the well-described post-hospital syndrome.

© 2019 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made

Keywords

• Seattle Heart Failure Model; Acute heart failure; Mortality risk; Hospital discharge